INFATIGABLE LE EARL
Affichage des articles dont le libellé est EARL. Afficher tous les articles
Affichage des articles dont le libellé est EARL. Afficher tous les articles
jeudi 9 septembre 2010
mardi 31 août 2010
lundi 30 août 2010
SITUATIONS
Invest 97L va devenir la TD8 au plus tard demain mardi ou mercredi.Ensuite 2 scenarios possibles : soit ce système se rapproche trop de EARL, ne trouvera pas l'énergie pour se développer (SST deja "utilisée" par le passage de Danielle et Earl, et windshears de 20kts-30kts laissés par le passage de Earl) et risque de disparaitre, soit ce système reste assez loin de EARL et un passage au Nord de l'Arc est envisageable, mais à priori sans être trop puissant (simple tempête au maximum).
Plus à l'Est une belle masse vient de sortir d'Afrique. Sans doute un futur Invest 98L d'ici 72h.
A noter que, maintenant, les systèmes sortant d'Afrique risquent d'avoir des trajectoires plus Ouest que les précédants ....
Enfin sur l'Afrique le joli petit train d'Ondes continue son chemin vers l'Ouest.
Celle la plus à W (vers le 10E) est initiée par le GFS en Depression Tropicale dans une semaine sous le Cap Vert apres sa marinisation ... à suivre
EARL OURAGAN MAJEUR CATEGORIE 3 : POSITION DE 11AM EDT 30 08 10
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
...EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE CATEGORY THREE ...
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SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
EARL EN CLASSE II : POSITION DE 11PM EDT
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
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SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
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SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
EARL : POSITION DE 8PM EDT
800 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010...EARL HEADING FOR NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...
.................................................................................................
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES
dimanche 29 août 2010
EARL : POSITION DE 5PM EDT
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON...
..........................................................................
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON...
..........................................................................
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
HURRICANE EARL : C'EST FAIT ...
A 8h30 ce matin le NHC a initié EARL en HURRICANE CLASSE IVigilance ORANGE pour la Guadeloupe.
PREPAREZ VOUS !!!!!
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LEEWARD ISLANDS...
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SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
LOCATION...17.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
TOUJOURS DU PLEIN OUEST ...
.................................................................................. 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
...EARL MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 55.4W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
...EARL MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 55.4W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 GMT 08/25/10 14.3N 30.8W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/25/10 14.4N 32.2W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/26/10 14.7N 33.6W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/26/10 15.2N 34.8W 45 1004 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/26/10 14.9N 37.1W 45 1004 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/26/10 15.2N 38.8W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/27/10 15.5N 40.2W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/27/10 15.9N 41.6W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/27/10 15.7N 43.6W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/27/10 15.8N 46.0W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/28/10 16.0N 47.9W 50 1002 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/28/10 15.7N 50.1W 60 999 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/28/10 16.0N 51.8W 60 999 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/28/10 16.5N 54.2W 60 999 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/29/10 16.6N 55.4W 65 989 Tropical Storm
EARL : POSITION DE 8PM EDT
800 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.6W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.6W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
samedi 28 août 2010
EARL 5PM 28 08 10
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
PETIT TRAIN ... DE PROBLEMES A VENIR
NO COMMENT.DANS LA FAMILLE "CAP VERDIEN" JE VEUX DANIELLE, EARL, BEBE FIONA ET TONTON GASTON .
REFLEXION DE 15H
CETTE FOIS CI LE MOTEUR DE EARL EST EN MARCHE
Il serait bien pour avoir une track plus NW RAPIDEMENT que EARL se "libere" de sa zone convective située à son SW,et qui l'alimente en humidité.Il semble que c'est ce qui est entrain de se produire ..... la zone sur les anims WV semble devenir un peu moins dense .
Une trajectoire toujours W apres le 55W et les "ennuis" pour la Guadeloupe deviennent plus importants, à partir de demain Dimanche en début d'APM.
De toute façon c'est "border line"...
EARL 2PM 28 08 10
200 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
CORRECTED LATITUDE...
...EARL A LITTLE WEAKER...ACCELERATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.1N 53.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
CORRECTED LATITUDE...
...EARL A LITTLE WEAKER...ACCELERATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 53.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TRACK EARL 11AM EDT 28 AOUT 2010
ATTENTION : UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD N'EST PAS ENCORE A EXCLURE
...EARL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...16.0N 51.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Earl
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 GMT 08/25/10 14.3N 30.8W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/25/10 14.4N 32.2W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/26/10 14.7N 33.6W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/26/10 15.2N 34.8W 45 1004 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/26/10 14.9N 37.1W 45 1004 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/26/10 15.2N 38.8W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/27/10 15.5N 40.2W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/27/10 15.9N 41.6W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/27/10 15.7N 43.6W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/27/10 15.8N 46.0W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/28/10 16.0N 47.9W 50 1002 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/28/10 15.7N 50.1W 60 999 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/28/10 16.0N 51.8W 60 999 Tropical Storm
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...16.0N 51.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Earl
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 GMT 08/25/10 14.3N 30.8W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/25/10 14.4N 32.2W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/26/10 14.7N 33.6W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/26/10 15.2N 34.8W 45 1004 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/26/10 14.9N 37.1W 45 1004 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/26/10 15.2N 38.8W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/27/10 15.5N 40.2W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/27/10 15.9N 41.6W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/27/10 15.7N 43.6W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/27/10 15.8N 46.0W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/28/10 16.0N 47.9W 50 1002 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/28/10 15.7N 50.1W 60 999 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/28/10 16.0N 51.8W 60 999 Tropical Storm
ET PENDANT CE TEMPS LA EN AFRIQUE ...
Pas moins de 5 belles Ondes en stock .... c'est impressionnant ....
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