UNE FIN DE SEPTEMBRE TRÈS ACTIVE ...
samedi 24 septembre 2011
SITUATION OPHELIA 5 PM VENDREDI
500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011
...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT WOBBLES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
03 GMT 09/21/11 12.2N 40.1W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/21/11 12.7N 41.8W 45 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/21/11 13.0N 43.6W 60 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/21/11 13.6N 44.7W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/22/11 13.7N 46.2W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/22/11 13.4N 47.0W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/22/11 13.6N 47.6W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/22/11 13.8N 48.9W 65 994 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/23/11 14.1N 49.9W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/23/11 14.5N 51.0W 45 1004 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/23/11 14.6N 52.6W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/23/11 15.5N 53.8W 60 1001 Tropical Storm
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
03 GMT 09/21/11 12.2N 40.1W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/21/11 12.7N 41.8W 45 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/21/11 13.0N 43.6W 60 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/21/11 13.6N 44.7W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/22/11 13.7N 46.2W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/22/11 13.4N 47.0W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/22/11 13.6N 47.6W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/22/11 13.8N 48.9W 65 994 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/23/11 14.1N 49.9W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/23/11 14.5N 51.0W 45 1004 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/23/11 14.6N 52.6W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/23/11 15.5N 53.8W 60 1001 Tropical Storm
vendredi 23 septembre 2011
SITUATION OPHELIA 11 PM JEUDI ... PFFFF
1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2011
...OPHELIA WEAKENS...SUCCUMBING TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...14.1N 49.9W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
SITUATION OPHELIA 5 PM JEUDI
500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2011
...OPHELIA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...13.8N 48.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
03 GMT 09/21/11 12.2N 40.1W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/21/11 12.7N 41.8W 45 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/21/11 13.0N 43.6W 60 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/21/11 13.6N 44.7W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/22/11 13.7N 46.2W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/22/11 13.4N 47.0W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/22/11 13.6N 47.6W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/22/11 13.8N 48.9W 65 994 Tropical Storm
mercredi 21 septembre 2011
SITUATION OPHELIA 5 PM : CHUTE DE LA PA 1000 MB
500 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011
...OPHELIA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...13.6N 44.7W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
LES PROCHAINES 24H SONT IMPORTANTES.
LA MAJORITÉ DES MODÈLES FONT PASSER OPHELIA AU NE DES PETITES ANTILLES, MAIS QUELQUES UNS DONNENT UN PASSAGE PLUS PROCHE, MÊME UN CROISEMENT DES PETITES ANTILLES, EN OURAGAN CAT 1.
IL RESTE DONC UNE INCERTITUDE CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE D'OPHELIA, D'OÙ L'IMPORTANCE DES 24H/36H PROCHAINES HEURES. UN PASSAGE SOUS LE 15N-55W VENDREDI ET LE WE S'ANNONCERA "SPACE".
A SUIVRE SUR HURRICANES HUNTER ...
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
03 GMT 09/21/11 12.2N 40.1W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/21/11 12.7N 41.8W 45 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/21/11 13.0N 43.6W 60 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/21/11 13.6N 44.7W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/21/11 12.2N 40.1W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/21/11 12.7N 41.8W 45 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/21/11 13.0N 43.6W 60 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/21/11 13.6N 44.7W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
NAISSANCE DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE OPHELIA
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011
...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...12.2N 40.1W
ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
mardi 20 septembre 2011
SITUATION ATLANTIQUE
INVEST 98L SUR LE POINT DE DONNER NAISSANCE A LA FUTURE TEMPETE TROPICALE OPHELIA
lundi 19 septembre 2011
SITUATION COCASSE DANS L' ATLANTIQUE
98L ET 99L SONT DANS L'ATLANTIQUE (DANS UN BATEAU).
99L TOMBE A L'EAU (30 KTS DE WINSHEARS NE PARDONNENT PAS).
QU'EST CE QUI RESTE ?
LA FUTURE OPHELIA ... PEUT ÊTRE ?
NAISSANCES DE INVEST 98L ET DE INVEST 99L, INVEST 97L DISPARAIT
PASSAGE POSSIBLE DE INVEST 98L SUR LES PETITES ANTILLES EN ONDE TROPICALE (FORTE ?) POUR LA FIN DE SEMAINE.
PAS BIEN MECHANT TOUT CELA
dimanche 18 septembre 2011
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